What is the next Technology Tsunami?

It's been a couple of weeks since my last poston this blog, mostly because it has got so busy at MYOB, which is common for this time of year. But a conversation over lunch with a good friend got me thinking of the difference between 'Technology Tsunamis', and 'Technology Rising Tides'.

Firstly, what's the difference between the two.

Well, a Technology Rising Tide is where there is a gradual change or shift in what people (or businesses) use technology for. Whereas a Technology Tsunami is a sudden, sometimes unanticipated change. I would describe Tsunamis as an imminent change, something likely to happen in the next twelve months, while a Rising Tide could take several years.

Here's some examples that I have experienced over the last twenty years:
EFTPOS - this is a Rising Tide, in that people became aware of the availability, and slowly started to adopt it over time. The banks persuaded us further by making the alternate (cheques and cash) less convenient and (sometimes) more costly. Linked in with how easy EFTPOS is to use, and the wider acceptance of credit cards, it had a semi-predictable outcome.
EFile - this is a Rising Tide. The IRD encouraged Tax Agents to use it, but didn't enforce it. It's now very rare to find a Tax Agent with more than 100 clients that doesn't use EFile, particularly with the introduction of Internet connectivity in the last few years.
Windows - another Rising Tide, although there was broad interest with the release of Windows 95, it wasn't significant enough overall to give it Tsunami status. The big change for Windows came with Y2K.
Y2K - a Tsunami. This was unstoppable, and had significant effect on the established technology base. DOS was drowned by the Y2K Tsunami.
Australian GST - another Tsunami, and a great opportunity for technology, as the Australian Government subsided the adoption of software. For example, this had a significant effect on the success of MYOB.
NZ Kiwisaver - a Rising Tide. Since the NZ government didn't make it easy for businesses to adopt technology to make their life easier, this will be a gradual change, similar to the adoption of EFile.
Australian Superannuation - a Rising Tide, similar to NZ Kiwisaver.
The Internet - perhaps the biggest ever Technology Rising Tide.

So why am I even bothering to talk about this? I guess I am intrigued to see what Tsunamis might be on the horizon, and what Rising Tides we are currently experiencing. So I'm keen to hear your thoughts on this.